Nonfarm payrolls amounted to 172.0K, exceeding the consensus forecast of 85.0K and the April figure revised to 179.0K, while unemployment remained at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Combined revisions for March and April added 93.0K to previously reported figures, almost completely ruling out a shift toward dovish rhetoric from the regulator. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of at least one 25-basis-point interest rate hike is now close to 70.0%. Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on the consumer price index, which, according to preliminary estimates, will reach 4.2% year-on-year, more than twice the 2.0% target level.
Eurozone
The European currency is showing moderate growth, continuing the bullish momentum that formed at the beginning of this week.
Investors and forex traders remain focused on monetary policy prospects from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The latter is unanimously expected by analysts to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points at Thursday’s meeting: according to surveys, more than 90.0% of economists expect borrowing costs to be adjusted to 2.25%, while slightly more than half forecast another move this year, likely in September. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, in turn, warned of “indirect effects beyond energy prices,” noting from survey data that many companies are already preparing to raise prices for their products, which could develop into a broader problem — faster inflation. Final Eurostat data published on June 5 showed that the eurozone economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026, the weakest result since the third quarter of 2022 and the sharpest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the figures revised downward from the initial estimate of 0.1%. In annual terms, growth was only 0.3%, sharply slowing from 1.2% in the fourth quarter, mainly due to developments in Ireland, where gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 12.1% in the first quarter. Among the bloc’s major economies, Spain’s GDP increased by 0.6%, while Germany and Italy added only 0.3%, and the Netherlands gained 0.1%.
United Kingdom
The pound is trading higher, extending the corrective momentum of the previous session.
The key event of the week will be Friday’s publication of U.K. gross domestic product (GDP) data for April: if the indicator rises from 1.2% year-on-year and from 0.3% month-on-month, it will support the national currency. For now, the United Kingdom is entering a period of significantly rising fiscal risks amid accelerated growth in public debt, which increases the likelihood of a debt crisis. According to expert estimates, as early as September the total volume of the country’s liabilities will exceed the psychologically important level of 3.0 trillion pounds for the first time: government borrowing is currently increasing by 7.5K pounds per second, equivalent to 650.0 million pounds per day. This rapid dynamic is driven by the long-term consequences of the global financial crisis, large-scale budget spending during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as significant energy support and subsidy programs. If in 1997 public debt per capita was less than 6.0K pounds, by 2010 it had risen to 16.4K pounds, now it has reached 42.0K pounds, and by the end of the decade it will approach 50.0K pounds. Additional concern is caused by the expected rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, which is estimated to exceed 96.0% in the coming years, pointing to a significant weakening of public finance sustainability. Notably, a comparable level of debt burden was recorded only in the early 1960s, when the national economy continued to service obligations accumulated during World War II, highlighting the historic scale of the current economic challenges.
Japan
The yen is showing mixed dynamics after the publication of macroeconomic statistics the day before.
The national economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter, matching the preliminary estimate and exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who expected only 0.3%. It also accelerated compared with 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, showing the strongest performance since the beginning of last year. In annual terms, the indicator added 1.8%, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 2.1%, but significantly above the market consensus of 1.3%. Against the dollar, the yen has been holding above the psychologically important level of 160.00 for several consecutive days, which serves as a signal for financial authorities regarding possible new interventions to stabilize the exchange rate. Commenting on the situation, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated her readiness to respond to currency fluctuations, stressing that the regulator reserves the right to take “decisive measures” against excessive volatility, while macroeconomic data released last Friday highlighted the “cost” of such steps. Japan’s foreign exchange reserves, most of which experts believe are held in U.S. Treasury bonds, declined significantly, indicating the limited scope for large-scale interventions after official Tokyo carried out a record operation to buy the national currency worth 73.0 billion dollars.
Oil
Quotes are retreating from the local low of 89.00.
On Sunday, a group of seven OPEC+ agreement participants decided to support previous arrangements by raising July production levels by another 188.0K barrels per day while maintaining the previous distribution of restored volumes among member countries. Thus, the total quota will amount to 35.83 million barrels per day, excluding compensation from deal violators. Since the end of February, alliance members have been unable to fully meet demand, as the energy crisis worsened after the United Arab Emirates left the organization after almost 60 years of membership, while production levels declined due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, averaging 33.19 million barrels per day in April against 42.77 million barrels per day in February.
Cartel leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia will be able to increase production next month by 62.0K barrels per day to 10.353 million barrels per day and 9.824 million barrels per day, respectively. Iraq has the right to raise output by 26.0K barrels per day to 4.378 million barrels per day, Kuwait by 16.0K barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day, and Algeria by 6.0K barrels per day to 995.0K barrels per day. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned company Saudi Aramco announced a significant reduction in official selling prices for crude oil with July delivery for customers in all key regions of the world: for buyers in Asia, the price of Arab Light will decrease by 6.9 dollars per barrel, in the United States by 2.0 dollars per barrel, and in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by 10.0 dollars per barrel. At the same time, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), fuel reserves are expected to change from –6.750 million barrels to –2.000 million barrels, while data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), due tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), may show a change of –2.900 million barrels after the previous –7.974 million barrels.
